Simulating Energy Transitions

Have you ever wanted to know whether a CO2 tax outperforms the EU emissions trading scheme? Or how long it really takes markets to change and to let consumers choose differently? In this book, Emile Chappin explores simulation models to provide us with answers before policy interventions are implemented and shows that, by developing agent-based models, we can simulate energy transition. Learn about a new framework that enables us to model energy infrastructure systems as complex socio-technical systems, which evolve as a result of distributed decision making by actors in the system. See how running agent-based models let the system structure and dynamics emerge from the interactions between actors and technologies. Understand how actors, who decide on operation and investment, are responsive to policy interventions, market rules, and technological development. Find out from simulations of the electricity production sector, the LNG market, and consumer lighting that interventions in these energy systems do alter their evolution – they invoke structural, systemic change: transition. This thesis thus demonstrates that agent-based models yield a powerful tool for governments and companies: they allow them to assess the long-term effect of their policies and strategies in our complex, interconnected world.